- Trump plans to deport large numbers of immigrants, likely impacting key industries.
- Construction, agriculture, and hospitality have particularly high shares of immigrant workers.
- The full scope of the planned mass deportations remains unclear.
Present-elect Donald Trump's plans for mass deportations could significantly impact construction, agriculture, and hospitality.
On Monday, Trump confirmed in a post on Truth Social that he plans to use the US military and declare a national emergency to assist with mass deportations of immigrants in the US illegally.
Business Insider found which industries could be most impacted by deportations based on their share of immigrant workers per the most recent Census Bureau data as of 2022. The data breaks down 13 major sectors by the number of native-born citizens, naturalized citizens, and non-US citizens working in each. Immigrants in the US illegally are included in Census Bureau estimates.
Construction has the highest share of non-US citizen workers of any industry at 21.5% or 2.45 million out of 11.38 million. Estimates from the left-leaning American Immigration Council are even higher: 40% of construction workers — and those in the US illegally made up 23.3%.
Homebuilding executives and economists previously told BI that deportation plans could worsen the 500,000-worker shortage in the construction labor force, which would drive increases in home prices.
The agriculture industry could also be heavily impacted by mass deportations. About 15.7% of agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting workers — or about 359,000 — are not US citizens. A 2021 analysis by the left-leaning Center For American Progress determined that nearly 300,000 workers in the US illegally are in farming and agriculture, two-thirds of whom work in crop production.
About 13.2% of total workers in leisure and hospitality are not US citizens, while this statistic is 11.9% for professional and business services.
Some small businesses are preparing for the potential economic impacts of deportations. Molly Day, vice president of public affairs at the nonpartisan National Small Business Association, said some small business owners in STEM fields expect challenges in hiring new workers if policies surrounding H-1B visas become stricter.
Day told BI, "there is a general concern that the cost of goods could go up if there is a true mass deportation," among small business owners she spoke to. "I also heard from a handful of Hispanic business owners that it's going to impact communities more than just financially."
To be sure, deportation plans are still in flux, and it's unclear how many people would be deported or who would be targeted first. The ACLU filed a lawsuit requesting more information about the plans.
Trump's selections for his administration have indicated deportations could be widespread. Trump tapped Tom Homan, previously acting director of the US Immigration and Customs Enforcement, as his "border czar." He designated Stephen Miller, the chief architect of the travel ban targeting majority-Muslim countries during Trump's first term, as White House Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy and US Homeland Security Advisor.
"President Trump will marshal every federal and state power necessary to institute the largest deportation operation of illegal criminals, drug dealers, and human traffickers in American history while simultaneously lowering costs for families," Trump-Vance Transition spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said in a statement.